Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Inequality & Imprisonment
Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Inequality & Imprisonment
This week HLS has invited a selected group of experts to reflect upon critical issues in Scottish penal policy. Today we look at the road to prison. Professor Susan McVie and Dr Ben Matthews, researchers from the Understanding Inequalities project, ask what is the relationship between Scotland’s staggeringly high use of imprisonment and poverty? (Scotland's imprisonment rate is 143 per 100,000 of national population, one of the highest imprisonment rates in Europe). But they push us further, encouraging us to carefully and critically think about how studying crime and inequality can inadvertently stigmatise the poor and marginalised.
Imprisonment and Multiple Deprivation in Scotland
In 2005, Roger Houchin foundthat the links between social exclusion and imprisonment in Scotland were so strong that the best strategy to tackle offending behaviour lay in tackling social exclusion. In 2008, the Scottish Prisons Commission agreed that the prison population was over-represented by people from the poorest communities, and recommendedsignificant changes to the use of imprisonment in Scotland. But 10 years on, what progress has been made?
The ESRC-funded Understanding Inequalities project aims to explore the causes and consequences of inequalities in Scottish society.[1]As part of our work on crime and justice inequalities, we revisited Houchin’s report to see whether the relationship between inequality and imprisonment in Scotland still held, especially given the substantial falls in crime in Scotland over the past 15 years[2].
Specifically, we wanted to see if two of Houchin’s conclusions from 2005 were still valid. Firstly, that there was a ‘linear’ or straightforward correspondence between the level of deprivation in an area and its rate of imprisonment. And second, that deprivation was ‘neither a necessary nor a sufficient’ explanation for rates of imprisonment.
We looked at data on Scottish prisoners from one night in 2014 and examined the datazones (a proxy for neighbourhoods) in which their last known address was registered. Houchin’s conclusions were based on a similar dataset, although there were some differences in methodology[3]so our results are not directly comparable with his at the neighbourhood level. Nevertheless, we can compare our findings with Houchin’s for the whole of Scotland.
Results
Let’s consider Houchin’s two propositions in turn. To do this, we examined inequality in the rate of imprisonment per 1,000 people in each of Scotland’s 6,976 datazones (to enable comparison across different neighbourhoods).[4] Our measure of inequality was the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), a routinely used measure of deprivation which ranks Scotland’s datazones from 1 (the most deprived neighbourhood) to 6,976 (the least deprived neighbourhood).
Proposition 1: There is a linear correspondence between level of deprivation and imprisonment.
If proposition one were true, when we plotted the imprisonment rate against the overall rank of SIMD we would expect to see a downward diagonal slope (i.e. as SIMD rank increases - datazones become less deprived – the imprisonment rate correspondingly decreases). Using the data from 2014, Figure One tests the proposition that this relationship is linear. The blue line gives a ‘best guess’ of what the imprisonment rate would be in each datazone if all we knew about that datazone was its SIMD rank. We can see that, on average, the most deprived datazones (to the left of the chart) have higher imprisonment rates than the less deprived datazones (to the right of the chart). This is very similar to what Houchin found - as he puts it, “[i]t is not simply that the most deprived are most at risk of imprisonment, it is that, at all levels of prosperity, the probability of imprisonment increases with increasing deprivation.”
There are some caveats, however. First, we can see that the relationship between the imprisonment rate and SIMD may be better described as a non-linear correspondence than a linear one[5]- the blue line isn’t straight, it curves upwards towards the left-hand side of the graph. This means that the difference in the ‘best guess’ of the imprisonment rate between, say, the 100th most deprived datazone and the 200th most deprived datazone is not the same as the difference in the ‘best guess’ imprisonment rate between the 200th and 100th least deprived neighbourhoods. In other words, imprisonment rates in the most deprived neighbourhoods of Scotland appear to be disproportionately higher than those in the most affluent neighbourhoods, based on their levels of deprivation alone.
Proposition 2: Deprivation is neither a necessary nor a sufficient correlate of imprisonment
Houchin’s second proposition was that the averagerelationship between imprisonment rate and deprivation (shown in Figure One) did not show the whole picture. To test this, we added the actual imprisonment rate for each individual datazone to Figure Two. Each dot represents a single datazone in Scotland and, as you can see, the dots do not all cluster around the blue line (the best guess of the imprisonment rate based only on SIMD). This suggests that there are other factors that affect the imprisonment rate of a given neighbourhood rather than just deprivation. The wide spread of points around the line also indicates that neighbourhoods with similar levels of deprivation can have very different imprisonment rates. For example, within the 10% most deprived neighbourhoods the maximum imprisonment rate was over 22 per 1,000 people and the minimum imprisonment rate was zero. However, within the 10% least deprived neighbourhoods the maximum imprisonment rate was 3.75 per 1,000 and the minimum rate was zero. In other words, the imprisonment rate is lower in some of the most deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland (as measured by SIMD) than it is in the least deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland. Houchin’s second proposition, therefore, is correct.
Imprisonment and Inequality
So has anything actually changed in the years since Houchin’s report?
Based on our analysis, Houchin’s conclusions about the relationship between social exclusion (or inequality) and imprisonment still provide a reasonable description of the relationship between area-level deprivation and area-level imprisonment rates in Scotland. On average there is still a ’correspondence’ between deprivation and imprisonment - and this should be a concern for those interested in prison reform and issues of inequality more broadly in Scotland – however, it is clearly not the only factor that influences whether someone ends up in prison or not.
In order to properly understand the relationship between imprisonment and inequality in Scotland today, we need to take Houchin’s propositions further and examine the extent to which multiple forms of inequality intersect to impact on people’s life chances. In her careful reflection on Houchin’s analysis, Sarah Armstrong cautioned that “killer stats”, like those from Houchin’s report, can “lock in certain ideas and associations… making it difficult to understand the problem in any other terms.” Armstrong warned that if we only focus on the correspondence between deprivation and imprisonment, when we hear the word ‘prisoner’ we will automatically visualize a ‘poor’ face - when the reality is much more complex. We also need to remember that there are very deprived neighbourhoods in Scotland where imprisonment rates are much lower than those of more affluent areas.
At a simple level, it is true that people living in Scotland’s most deprived communities are disproportionately more likely to end up in our prisons. But, as we have shown here, visualizing the data in more detail enables us to see that there is a much bigger, more complex, story to be told. It is this that the Understanding Inequalities project aims to do in the coming years.
Author information: Professor Susan McVie and Dr Ben Matthews work on the ESRC-funded Understanding Inequalties project at the Univeristy of Edinburgh.
Endnotes:
[1]The Understanding Inequalities project has been funded by the ESRC (Grant Reference ES/P009301/1) for three years from October 2017. It involves an international team of researchers led by the University of Edinburgh.
[2]The Applied Quantitative Methods Network analysed different aspects of the crime drop in Scotland, including trends in victimization, the spatial distribution, and patterns of convictions.
[3]There’s a helpful, if rather technical, discussion of these methodological challenges on Wikipedia.
[4]We calculate this as a rate by dividing the number of people in prison with a home address in each datazone by the total datazone population. It’s important to remember that we only have data on numbers of people in prison, not offending, conviction, policing, reporting, sentencing or any other factors which may affect the numbers of people in a given neighbourhood who were in prison on the night this dataset relates to.
[5]Statistically-minded readers will have noted that whether fitted values from a statistical model are linear or non-linear will depend on the model specification used. We compared the statistical fit of a model which allowed the relationship between imprisonment rate and Overall SIMD to be non-linear to a model which only allowed a linear relationship, and found that the non-linear model did a better job of describing the data.
Sections
Archive
2023
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HMIPS Thematic Review of Segregation in Scottish Prisons
18th September 2023
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HMP Greenock Full Inspection Report
18th September 2023
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Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Bill
18th September 2023
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Recorded Crime in Scotland 2022-2023
18th September 2023
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Prison Mobile Phone Phase Out
18th September 2023
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Children (Care and Justice) (Scotland) Bill
18th September 2023
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Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service Corporate Plan (2023-26) & Business Plan (2023-24)
18th September 2023
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Prisoner Voting
18th September 2023
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HMP Addiewell Full Inspection
18th September 2023
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Journey Times in Scotland's Criminal Justice System Report
18th September 2023
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Joint Review of Diversion From Prosecution
18th September 2023
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'Still Nothing to See Here' Follow Up Report
18th September 2023
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Scottish Parliament Pre-Budget Scrutiny
18th September 2023
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HMIPS Annual Report 2021-2022
18th September 2023
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HMIPS Strategic Plan 2022-2025
18th September 2023
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HMP Shotts: Full Prison Inspection
18th September 2023
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Court Backlog Modelling
18th September 2023
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Scottish Prison Population Health Needs Report
18th September 2023
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The New Women's Prison Estate in Scotland
18th September 2023
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Recorded Crime in Scotland 2021-2022
18th September 2023
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Scottish Sentencing Council Reports
18th September 2023
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Mental Health Support in Scotland's Prisons 2021: Under-Served and Under-Resourced
18th September 2023
2022
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Judged on Progress: the Need for Urgent Delivery on Scottish Justice Sector Reforms
21st April 2022
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Age of Criminal Responsibility (Scotland) Act 2019 Implemented
21st April 2022
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Independent Review of the Response to Deaths in Prison Custody
21st April 2022
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Scottish Sentencing Council: Guideline on the Sentencing of Young People
21st April 2022
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HMIPS Annual Report 2020-2021
21st April 2022
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HMIPS Health and Well-Being Pre-Inspection Survey
21st April 2022
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Scottish Sentencing Council Report: Judicial Perspectives on Community-Based Disposals
21st April 2022
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Reconviction Statistics: 2019-19 Offender Cohort
21st April 2022
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Recorded Crime in Scotland 2020-2021
21st April 2022
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HMIPS Liaison Visit to HMP Greenock
21st April 2022
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HMIPS Liaison Visit to HMP Castle Huntly
21st April 2022
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Audit Scotland: Community Justice Sustainable Alternatives to Custody
21st April 2022
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Mental Welfare Commission Report: Women and Mental Ill-Health
21st April 2022
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Membership of the new Scottish Parliament Criminal Justice Committee Announced
21st April 2022
2021
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The Scandal of Remand in Scotland: A Report by Howard League Scotland – May 2021
21st May 2021
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An Urgent Plea from Howard League Scotland Committee
21st April 2021
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Expert Review of Mental Health Support For Young People Entering And In Custody At HMP&YOI Polmont - Final Progress Update
15th April 2021
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Extended Presumption Against Short Sentences Monitoring Information: January – December 2020
15th April 2021
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Scottish Crime & Justice Survey 2019-20
15th April 2021
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Criminal Justice Social Work Statistics: 2019 -20
15th April 2021
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HMIPS Liaison Visit to HMP/YOI Grampian
15th April 2021
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Review of Forensic Mental Health Services in Scotland Final Report
15th April 2021
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The Prisons and Young Offenders Institutions (Coronavirus) (Scotland) Rules
15th April 2021
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Covid19 Court Restrictions Extended
15th April 2021
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The Community Orders (Coronavirus)(Scotland) Regulations 2021
15th April 2021
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The Restorative Justice (Prescribed Persons) (Scotland) Order 2021
15th April 2021
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Allan Marshall FAI Recommendations
15th April 2021
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The Parole Board (Scotland) Amendment Rules 2021
15th April 2021
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Effects of New Covid19 Variant
15th April 2021
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Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service (SCTS) Criminal Case Throughput Data
15th April 2021
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Council of Europe's European Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment Report
15th April 2021
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Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2017-18 Offender Cohort
15th April 2021
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Justice Committee Evidence Session - Covid19 Effects on Criminal Justice System
15th April 2021
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HMIPS Liaison Visit to HMP Kilmarnock
15th April 2021
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Management of Offenders (Scotland) Act - Electronic Monitoring
15th April 2021
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Outstanding Unpaid Work (Community Payback Orders)
14th April 2021
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HMP Dumfries Full Inspection
14th April 2021
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New European Prison Rules
14th April 2021
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Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2019 - 2020
14th April 2021
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HMIPS First Liaison Visit to HMP Addiewell
14th April 2021
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HMIPS First Liaison Visit to HMP Edinburgh
14th April 2021
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Disclosure (Scotland) Act
14th April 2021
2020
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HMIPS: Remote Monitoring and Liaison Visits
16th November 2020
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Virtual Visits and Mobile Phones in Scottish Prisons
16th November 2020
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SPS Covid19 Route Map
16th November 2020
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Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2018-19
16th November 2020
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HMIPS Inspection of HMP Edinburgh
16th November 2020
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Jackie Tombs – A Note of Appreciation
20th August 2020
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Three Keys to Unlocking the Problem of Prisons in a Pandemic
25th June 2020
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‘Prisoner householding’: the latest threat from Covid-19
29th April 2020
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COVID-19 in Scottish Prisons: Update #1
30th March 2020
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COVID-19 in Scottish Prisons
30th March 2020
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Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representations) Bill Passed
30th March 2020
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Disclosure (Scotland) Bill Report
23rd March 2020
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Age of Criminal Responsibility (Scotland) Act
23rd March 2020
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Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representations) Bill Report
23rd March 2020
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Independent Review of the Handling of Deaths in Custody
23rd March 2020
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Evidence to Education and Skills Committee: Disclosure (Scotland) Bill
23rd March 2020
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HMP Glenochil Full Inspection
23rd March 2020
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Council of Europe's European Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment
23rd March 2020
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Pre-Budget Scrutiny
11th February 2020
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Throughcare Service Provision Announcement
11th February 2020
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Recorded Crime in Scotland: 2018-2019
11th February 2020
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Evidence to Standards, Procedures and Public Appointments Committee: Prisoner Voting
11th February 2020
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Audit Scotland audit of SPS
11th February 2020
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Scottish Government - Programme for Government 2019/20
11th February 2020
2019
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HMIPS Annual Report 2018-19
5th November 2019
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Fatal Accident Inquiry - Allan Marshall (HMP Edinburgh)
5th November 2019
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Franchise Extended to Prisoners to Vote in the Shetland By-Election
5th November 2019
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Suspension of SPS Throughcare Support Service
25th July 2019
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Management of Offenders (Scotland) Bill
1st July 2019
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Presumption Against Short Sentences (PASS)
28th June 2019
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UN Committee Against Torture - Key Concerns
11th March 2019
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New Strapline Brief
28th January 2019
2018
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Call for Submissions: 40th Anniversary Conference 'Reimagining the Future'
20th December 2018
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First HLS Student Society Launches
28th September 2018
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Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Prison Reductionism
21st September 2018
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Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Disclosure of Convictions
20th September 2018
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Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Prisoner Voting Rights
19th September 2018
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Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Inequality & Imprisonment
18th September 2018
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Critical Issues in Scottish Penal Policy: Prison Officers
17th September 2018
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Remand: A life or death crisis in Scotland
8th August 2018
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Phones in Prisons: Reconnect or Rehabilitate?
11th July 2018
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Raising the bar of youth justice: the minimum age of criminal responsibility
9th July 2018
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Justice Committee Remand Report
25th June 2018
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HLS Gives Evidence to Parliament
17th May 2018
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HLS Management of Offenders Submission
17th May 2018
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Press Release: HLS Statement on Equality and Human Rights Committee
14th May 2018
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Committee Recommends ban on prisoner voting should be removed in its entirety
14th May 2018
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Call for Trustees
9th May 2018
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Achieving Social Justice in 2018: Prisoner Voting Rights
19th April 2018
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Scottish Prisons in Comparative Perspective
20th March 2018
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HLS Welcomes Increase in Minimum Age of Criminal Responsibility
14th March 2018
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Scotland Must Reform Life Sentences
12th March 2018
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International Women's Day
8th March 2018
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Crime falls, but the prison remains
28th February 2018
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Proposed Advances in Electronic Monitoring
28th February 2018
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Vision for Scottish Penal Reform in 2018
21st February 2018
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Spent Convictions Legislation
14th February 2018
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How long until my conviction is spent?
14th February 2018
2017
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Evidence on prisoner voting rights for Equalities and Human Rights Committee
7th September 2017
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Howard League Scotland response to Scottish Government's 2017/18 Programme for Government
6th September 2017
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Reviewing progress on female imprisonment in Scotland
26th June 2017
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HOWARD LEAGUE SCOTLAND RESPONSE TO DRAFT SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM BILL (2016)
13th March 2017
2016
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Scottish prisons design capacity and average daily populations (2015/16)
20th September 2016
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HLS response on minimum age of criminal responsibility
23rd June 2016
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2016 HOLYROOD ELECTIONS: REVIEW OF PARTY MANIFESTOS
29th April 2016
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Statement on presumption against short periods of imprisonment
9th February 2016
2015
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Response from Howard League Scotland to consultation on proposals to strengthen the presumption against short periods of imprisonment
23rd December 2015
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Briefing on Community Justice (Scotland) Bill
19th November 2015
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Howard League Scotland website problems
20th October 2015
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Reform of the Rehabilitation of Offenders Act 1974
7th September 2015
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Guest blog: Restructuring Community Justice in Scotland
1st September 2015
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Response to Scottish Government announcement on women offenders
22nd June 2015
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Prisoners (Control of Release) Bill - Stage 3 briefing
21st June 2015
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Women's Penal Policy Campaign Still Needs Champions
18th April 2015
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Latest Crime and Punishment Statistics Scotland
23rd March 2015
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Perspectives from inside Barlinnie
23rd March 2015
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Prisoner Voting
23rd March 2015
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Experiencing Long-term Imprisonment in Scotland
23rd March 2015
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Standards for Inspecting and Monitoring Prisons in Scotland
23rd March 2015
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Automatic Early Release
27th February 2015
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Prisoners (Control of Release) (Scotland) Bill Feb 2015
24th February 2015
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Blueprint for Reform
19th February 2015
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Automatic Early Release
4th February 2015
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Inverclyde in the news
26th January 2015
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Howard League Scotland welcomes bold decision on Inverclyde
26th January 2015
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HLS in the news: automatic early release
19th January 2015
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Ban on automatic early release
13th January 2015
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Grampian Prison Radio Station
13th January 2015
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January 2015 Scottish Prison Population
12th January 2015
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Pat Carlen on Women in Prison - an indictment of society
7th January 2015
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Death, Addiction and Decay - Health matters in Scottish prisons
5th January 2015
2014
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Inverclyde - a new year's resolution?
18th December 2014
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Can Prison Work?
1st December 2014
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New Cabinet Secretary for Justice
21st November 2014
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Ageing Prison Population
19th November 2014
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People in prison: a snapshot
5th November 2014
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Possible Smoking Ban in Scottish Prisons
3rd November 2014
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Scottish Government’s Draft Budget 2015-16
3rd November 2014
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Scottish Imprisonment - Recent trends and Costs
31st October 2014
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HLS Convenor, John Scott QC, Annual SACRO Lecture
30th October 2014
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Prison Visiting Committee Reform
30th October 2014
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Lord Carloway Drummond Hunter Lecture - full paper
27th October 2014
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Scottish Government’s Draft Budget 2014/15
11th October 2014
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Scottish Government: What Works to Reduce Crime?
10th October 2014
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Prison Population
8th October 2014
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Rehabilitation and Resettlement
8th October 2014
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Getting it Right For Every Child
6th October 2014
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Youth Justice Under the Radar
6th October 2014
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Extended Family Visits
6th October 2014
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Is prison the only future for women's penal policy?
1st October 2014
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Baroness Corston: Inverclyde prison 'will fail'
1st October 2014
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Scottish Imprisonment September 2014
26th September 2014
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Greenock Inspection
26th September 2014
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Howard League Scotland calls for voting rights for prisoners
23rd September 2014
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VOTERS ASKED TO REMEMBER THOSE WITH NO VOICE
18th September 2014
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Prison Population - September 2014
9th September 2014
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Prison Population - September 2014
9th September 2014
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Past, Present & Future - Women's Penal Policy
20th August 2014
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HMP Grampian - Incapacitant Spray Used
13th August 2014
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A Shine Mentor on Women Offenders: From Where I Stand...
11th August 2014
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SPS Annual Report 2013-2014
16th July 2014
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Prison Population - July 2014
11th July 2014
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Scottish Prisoner Voting Arrangements
3rd July 2014
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Breaking the Cycle of Building Bigger Prisons
1st July 2014
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HM Chief Inspector of Prisons Report 2013-2014 Published
25th June 2014
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The problem with prison population predictions
12th June 2014
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SPS Prisoner Surveys 2011-2013
10th June 2014
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SPS Custodial History and Substance Misuse 2014
6th June 2014
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Scottish Prison Population May 2014
4th June 2014
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Criminal Justice Social Work Annual Report 2012-13
29th May 2014
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SCCJR Report on Training for SPS Staff
26th May 2014
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Prison Transformation in Dominican Republic
24th May 2014
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WHO Report on Prison Health Care
24th May 2014
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Problems Implementing Human Rights in Prison Practice
20th May 2014
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Automatic Early Release May 2014
16th May 2014
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Prison and Desistance - (Re)turning point?
15th May 2014
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PQ re pregnant women in HMP Inverclyde
14th May 2014
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PQ on healthcare services for HMP Inverclyde
14th May 2014
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PQ on transport links to Inverclyde
14th May 2014
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PQ on Inverclyde - which experts consulted in design phase?
14th May 2014
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PQ on Inverclyde - different security levels?
14th May 2014
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Children are 'Innocent Victims' of imprisonment
14th May 2014
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PQ on Inverclyde Family Visiting Facilities
14th May 2014
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Proposal to end automatic early release
12th May 2014
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Prison Population - May 2014
11th May 2014
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Startling Differences in Regional Imprisonment Rates
2nd May 2014
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Moral Panic or Moral Crusade?
1st May 2014
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Moral Panic or Moral Crusade?
1st May 2014
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Criminal Justice Social Work Annual Report 2012-13
1st May 2014
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Cabinet Secretary for Justice Kenny MacAskill - Women's Penal Policy
24th April 2014
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218 Service - Case Studies
18th April 2014
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218 Project - Women's Penal Policy
18th April 2014
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Anne Pinkman, SWGWO - Women's Penal Policy
17th April 2014
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Karyn McCluskey,Violence Reduction - Women's Penal Policy
17th April 2014
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Maura Daly, Circle - Women's Penal Policy
16th April 2014
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Sarah Roberts, Families Outside - Women's Penal Policy
16th April 2014
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Tam Bailie, Commissioner for Children and Young People
15th April 2014
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CJA Chief Officers - Women's Penal Policy
15th April 2014
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Thinking about women's penal policy
14th April 2014
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Thinking about women's penal policy
14th April 2014
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Thinking about women's penal policy
14th April 2014
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Thinking about women's penal policy
14th April 2014
-
Howard League Scotland in the News
14th April 2014
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Dr Margaret Malloch - Women's Penal Policy
14th April 2014
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Tom Halpin, Sacro - Women's Penal Policy
14th April 2014
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What's right for women offenders?
13th April 2014
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CPT Recommendations Scotland - March 2014
27th March 2014
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Scotland's Prison Population 1998-2013
5th March 2014
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Scottish Sentences
13th February 2014
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HLS Event in the News
13th February 2014
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Scottish Prisons in the News
7th February 2014
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Recruiting ex-offenders - James Timpson Lecture
3rd February 2014
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Prison Visiting Committee Reform
30th January 2014
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Scottish Prison Population 3rd January 2014
21st January 2014
-
Prison Policy in the News
18th January 2014
2013
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Women Offenders
23rd December 2013
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Children and Young People (Scotland) Bill
23rd December 2013
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Prisoner voting and the independence referendum
23rd December 2013
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Independent monitoring of prisons
23rd December 2013
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Appointment of Howard League Scotland’s first President
23rd December 2013
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Female Imprisonment in Scotland - Survey 2013
12th December 2013
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Scottish Crime and Convictions Figures 2012-2013
26th November 2013
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Justice Budget 2014/15
11th October 2013
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Howard League Scotland Calls On MSPs To Let Short Term Prisoners Vote In The Independence Referendum
12th September 2013
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SPS Annual Report 2012-13
1st July 2013
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Prisoner Voting
21st March 2013
2012
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Angiolini Commission on Women Offenders
1st May 2012
2011
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Scottish Survey - Female Offenders (2011)
1st December 2011
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SCCJR: Female Imprisonment in Scotland
31st October 2011
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Cornton Vale Inspector of Prisons Report 2011
11th June 2011
2009
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SCCJR Report on Developing Sentencing & Penal Policy
9th August 2009
2006
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Women in Prison in Scotland, SCCCJ Report
3rd November 2006